2018: Rising Risk — But Upside Still

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Published: 03 January 2018

2018 will mark the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis. Since then, the economy has been on a record long expansion and the stock market has roughly tripled from its bottom. Unfortunately, fear of further pain and a completely new economic environment have kept many people cynical and out of the markets. 

As markets continue to rally into the New Year, many younger investors have caught a case of FOMO — fear of missing out. Is it at just the wrong time? Are they making the same mistakes of the past. The answer is probably, they just don’t know it yet. 

In this year’s letter, I take some time to talk about the continuing “slow growth forever” global economy, President Trump, a new Fed Chief, rising tension in the Middle East and some factors that could play out very badly. All that though is up against a global economy that is growing, record profits at corporations, near full employment in the United States and a rising standards of living for the tiny Xer generation and the huge Millennial generation. 

Grab a tall glass of water, this is “must read” material. 

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Freedom From OPEC Is Getting Much Closer

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Published: 03 July 2017

A few years ago, in a 2013 article on MarketWatch, I predicted that by early in the next decade, the United States would no longer need imported oil from OPEC. I was in no uncertain terms told I was wrong by many pundits and commentators, as well as, flat out laughed at.

“…Because the combination of increased solar usage and development of our unconventional oil and gas resources will be the key to complete freedom from OPEC by early next decade…”

The rapid improvements in solar energy, wind power, batteries, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, building efficiency and drilling technology, has in fact put the United States on the path I laid out just 4 years ago. That “all of the above” approach, so long as it is not disrupted by politics, will lead the U.S. to not needing OPEC oil imports by the mid 2020s.

Read more: Freedom From OPEC Is Getting Much Closer

2017: Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Presidency

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Published: 31 January 2017

2017 marks the beginning of a pivotal period for the global economy and geopolitical landscape. Over the past 40 years, the underpinnings of expanding global trade — globalization — has led to unprecedented economic growth. The remarkably uneven distribution of that growth and wealth creation, however, has finally caught up with the system. The world is facing a rise of populism with overt nationalist leanings in many countries — much like the period between World War I and World War II. Onto that stage, enter President Trump.

Read more: 2017: Challenges and Opportunities for the Trump Presidency